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Bureau of Mines Information Circular/1980 

C ,3*0 



Supply Analysis Model (SAM): 
A Minerals Availability 
System Methodology 



By Robert L. Davidoff 



UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR 



Information Circular, 8820 

Supply Analysis Model (SAM): 
A Minerals Availability 
System Methodology 

By Robert L. Davidoff 




UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR 
Cecil D. Andrus, Secretary 

BUREAU OF MINES 

Lindsay D. Norman, Acting Director 




As the Nation's principal conservation agency, the Department of the Interior 
has responsibility for most of our nationally owned public lands and natural 
resources. This includes fostering the wisest use of our land and water re- 
sources, protecting our fish and wildlife, preserving the environmental and 
cultural values of our national parks and historical places, and providing for 
the enjoyment of life through outdoor recreation. The Department assesses 
our energy and mineral resources and works to assure that their development is 
in the best interests of all our people. The Department also has a major re- 
sponsibility for American Indian reservation communities and for people who 
live in Island Territories under U.S. administration. _ . 



.lit 



This publication has been cataloged as follows: 



Davidoff, Robert L 

Supply analysis model (SAM): A minerals availability system. 

(Information circular - U.S. Bureau of Mines ;.no. 8820) 

Bibliography: p. 

Supt. of Docs, no.: I 28.27:8820. 

1. Mines and mineral resources— Mathematical models. 2. MAS 
(Computer system). I. Title. II. Series: United States. Bureau of 
Mines. Information circular ; no. 8820. 



TN295.U4 [TN153] 622s [553'.07'24] 80-607037 



For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office 
Washington, D.C. 20402 



CONTENTS 

Page 

Abs tract 1 

Introduction 1 

Acknowledgments 2 

Quantitative methods used by the Minerals Availability System 2 

The Supply Analysis Model (SAM) system 4 

General 4 

The file update subsystem 6 

Master commodity file 7 

Tax record file 7 

Cost index tables file 7 

Price table file 7 

Maintenance of permanent data files 7 

Maintenance of the master commodity files 12 

Maintenance of tax record file, cost index tables file, 

and the price table file 12 

The request processor subsystem 12 

Cost adjuster program 14 

MINSIM4 financial analysis program 14 

Table/curve data generator program 14 

The curve generator subsystem 14 

General output from the SAM system 17 

Conclusions 19 

Bibliography 21 

Appendix A. — MINSIM4 input parameters 22 

Appendix B. — Case example 25 

Appendix C. — Possible questions from the SAM system, used for making 

a commodity supply analysis study 35 

ILLUSTRATIONS 

1. Minerals Availability System workflow 3 

2. The SAM system 5 

3. The file update subsystem 6 

4. The request processor subsystem 13 

5. The curve generator subsystem 16 

6. Example of options report for SAM run No. XXXX 18 

B-l. Example of SAM system supply curve 26 

B-2. Simplified flow of the SAM system 27 

B-3. Total recoverable copper with 50-percent increase in associated 

byproduct and coproduct credits 33 

B-4. Total recoverable copper with 50-percent decrease in associated 

byproduct and coproduct credits 34 



ii 



TABLES 

Page 

1. Example of typical deposit information required for financial 

evaluation of a property 8 

2. Example of SAM system tax records file 9 

3. Example of SAM system cost index tables 10 

4. Example of SAM system price tables 11 

5. Example of MINSIM4 financial summary output 15 

6. Example of SAM system supply table output 20 



SUPPLY ANALYSIS MODEL (SAM): A MINERALS AVAILABILITY 

SYSTEM METHODOLOGY 

by 

Robert L. Davidoff 1 



ABSTRACT 

Growing domestic and global demands for mineral resources have estab- 
lished an imperative need for developing comprehensive, versatile mineral 
supply analysis evaluation tools. The Minerals Availability System (MAS) 
of the Bureau of Mines is meeting this need with its computerized Supply 
Analysis Model (SAM). This paper describes the SAM system and the quantita- 
tive methods used by the MAS for mineral supply analyses. The MAS evaluating 
process consists of deposit identification, tonnage and grade determinations, 
engineering and cost evaluations, financial analyses, and supply curve gen- 
eration. MAS has developed this computerized system primarily to facilitate 
the maintenance of data information for the constructing of commodity supply 
curves. The SAM system presently has the analytical capabilities of simul- 
taneously (1) evaluating many mineral deposits, (2) updating mineral supply 
information to reflect inflationary changes in costs and prices, and (3) 
conducting sensitivity analysis to determine impacts on mineral supply 
under various conditions. 

Many potential users in both government and industry will find the SAM 
system a valuable tool for policy analysis, forecasting, and planning. The 
SAM system has been constructed so that any types of information that are 
similar to the data elements in the MAS data base may be used to perform 
supply studies. The storage space needed for the SAM system's programs, 
files, and output data is approximately 14 million characters. 

INTRODUCTION 

Prior to World War II, the United States was largely self-sufficient 
for its supply of many minerals. Since that time, the United States has 
become a major importer of many mineral commodities basic to our industrial 
economy. As an importer, the Nation has entered into direct competition 
with other nations for foreign sources of raw materials supply. With an 
ever-increasing global population and desire for a better standard of living, 
competition for mineral resources is very intense. Consequently, the United 
States must continually appraise its mineral supply position and examine the 
conditions affecting the availability of mineral raw materials from domestic 
sources. Personnel of the Bureau of Mines continually analyze the domestic 
supply and demand of mineral commodities to provide reasonable data that can 
serve as a basis to help formulate mineral policy. 

'Mineral economist, Minerals Availability Field Office, Bureau of Mines, 
Denver, Colo. 



The Bureau of Mines Minerals Availability System (MAS) is designed to 
provide a systematic information base of mineral inventory to the Nation. 
The MAS system involves the evaluation and classification of mineral resource 
information for computerized automated storage and retrieval and serves as 
an information file for minerals availability studies to determine the 
Nation's mineral supply position. Geologic, engineering, and cost informa- 
tion is entered onto the data file by the Bureau's four field operations 
centers, location in Juneau, Alaska, Pittsburgh, Pa., Spokane, Wash., and 
Denver, Colo. These data are evaluated using economic mine modeling and 
financial and supply analyses by personnel of the Minerals Availability 
Field Office (MAFO) in Denver, Colo. 

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 

The author wishes to thank Rodney D. Rosenkranz, Mineral Economist, and 
Aldo F. Barsotti, Supply Analysis Studies Coordinator, of the Bureau of 
Mines, Minerals Availability Field Office, Denver, Colo, and the Division of 
Minerals Availability, Washington, D. C. for their assistance in the develop- 
ment of this model. Also, acknowledgment is made to computer programmers 
Ralph Johnson of the Division of Automatic Data Processing, and Louise Cotugno 
of the Office of Minerals Information Systems, Denver, Colo, and Joe To land, 
Supervisory Operations Research Analyst, of the Office of Minerals Information 
Systems, Denver, Colo.- 

QUANTITATIVE METHODS USED BY THE 
MINERALS AVAILABILITY SYSTEM 

The present objective of MAS is to determine the existing and potential 
domestic and foreign supply of 34 mineral commodities and secondary metals. 
Evaluation includes analysis of the costs of mining, benef iciating , smelting, 
refining, and transporting each commodity. This information, along with 
other engineering and cost data, is then structured into computer systems 
for rapid evaluations of potential mineral commodity supply. 

The MAS evaluation process, from deposit identification to the develop- 
ment of supply information, is illustrated in figure 1. This flow chart 
demonstrates the various evaluation stages required to generate supply curves. 

Initially, mines and deposits must be identified and selected for supply 
analysis. This process is a joint effort between MAFO personnel, MAS person- 
nel from the various field operations centers, and Bureau of Mines commodity 
specialists. Selection is based on such factors as size of deposit and like- 
lihood of production. 

MAS personnel perform engineering and cost evaluations upon each deposit 
that is to be included in the supply analysis. Involved in this stage of the 
evaluation are the processes of collecting and/or calculating the pertinent 
data items required to develop a mineral deposit. Some of these items are - 

Exploration capital costs 
Acquisition capital costs 




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Mine plant and equipment capital costs 

Mill plant and equipment capital costs 

Mining, milling, and processing operating costs 

Transportation costs 

Ore feed grades, recovery factors 

Taxes, royalties, production life 

Annual tonnage mined 

All the items mentioned above, as well as the name and location of the 
deposit, resource and/or reserve information, ownership, past production 
data, geology, geometry, environmental data, etc., are stored in deposit 
reports prepared for each deposit and in deposit files on the MAS data base. 

THE SUPPLY ANALYSIS MODEL (SAM) SYSTEM 

General 

The SAM system was developed to quickly estimate U.S. and world mineral 
availability based on the data items required to develop a mineral deposit. 
Factors influencing supply are in a constant state of change. Prior to the 
development of the SAM system, analysis of how the various factors affected 
supply was time consuming and tedious. Numerous separate computer analyses 
were required to determine impacts on individual mineral deposits. These 
results required manual aggregation to determine the shift in supply. Depend- 
ing on the number of deposits to be examined, analysis often took several 
months to complete. 

Using the SAM system, the time required for supply analysis has been 
greatly reduced. Supply from individual mines and deposits is quickly com- 
puted and aggregated by computer into supply curves. Similarly, shifts in 
supply caused by changes in the influencing factors can be quickly computed. 
As a result, supply curves can be updated immediately. 

A major advantage of the SAM system is its versatility and flexibility. 
Numerous factors can be used to determine the impact of these changes upon 
mineral supply. These factors include investment and operating costs, pro- 
duction data (feed grades, recoveries, and output), and tax information. A 
detailed list of factors that can be analyzed is given in appendix A. 

The heart of the SAM system is the MINSIM4 financial analysis program. 2 
This program is a comprehensive financial analysis simulator that enables an 
evaluator to perform discounted cash flow rate-of-return (DCFROR) analyses on 
mineral deposits. It also provides the evaluator the option of determining 
the selling price of the principal commodity required to obtain a specified 
rate of return. 



2 A copy of the MINSIM4 parameters used in the SAM system can be found in 
appendix A. Further information on MINSIM4 and all other programs internal 
to the SAM system may be obtained by contacting the Division of Minerals 
Availability, Washington, D.C. 



The SAM system is composed of three subsystems (fig. 2). These are the 
file update subsystem, the request processor subsystem, and the curve gen- 
erator subsystem. A detailed description of each subsystem follows. 



Fi I e update 
su bsy st em 



v 



Request processor 
su bsyst em 



V 



Curve generator 
subsystem 



i 



SUPPLY CURVES 



FIGURE 2. - The SAM system. 



The File U p date Subsystem 

In this subsystem, permanent data files are created and maintained. 
Figure 3 is a schematic diagram of the file update subsystem. Inclusive in 
this subsystem are five interactive computer programs to maintain four types 
of data files. These data files are the master commodity file, the tax 
record file, the cost index tables file, and the price table file. 



FILE UPDATE SUBSYSTEM 



Data base changes program 



Check 



Master commodity file update program 



Build and ma i ntain 



Tax record maintenance program 



Build and maintain 



Cost index table maintenance program 



Build and maintain 



Price table maintenance program 



Build and maintain 



REQUEST PROCESSOR 
SUBSYSTEM 




FIGURE 3. - The file update subsystem. 



Master Commodity File 

There is one master commodity file for each commodity. For each deposit, 
the file may contain up to five separate subfiles representing cost and 
production estimates at different resource levels. The deposit data on the 
master commodity file includes - 

1. Production 

2. Reserves 

3. Location 

4. Ownership 

5. Mining and processing methods 

6. Capital and operating costs 

7. Date of cost dollars 

8. Operating parameters (feed grades, production 
tonnages, recoveries, etc.) 

An example of some of the deposit information contained in a master 
commodity file is shown in table 1. 

Tax Record File 

For each State and foreign country, there are records that contain tax 
parameters for the MINSIM4 program's tax calculation routine. Table 2 pro- 
vides an example of these records. The SAM system's version of the MINSIM4 
program uses a general tax routine. For convenience, the different calcula- 
tion options (rate times taxable income, or tax computed on a sliding tax 
scale basis, etc.) are designated as Federal, State, severance, or property 
tax rates and options. By judicious selection and mixing of parameters, 
it is possible to approximate the tax structure of any State or country 
(including local tax). 

Cost Index Tables File 

The cost index tables are used to calculate the inflation factors to be 
applied to the capital and operating cost estimates in the master commodity 
file. Each of the 14 tables on the file contains the wholesale price index 
or an equivalent basis (by month and year) for a different type of cost 
category (skilled labor, equipment cost, etc.). (See reference 6 for a 
detailed description of updating procedures.) Table 3 is an example of this 
file. 

Price Table File 

The price table file (table 4) contains prices for each commodity by 
year and month. Primary, coproduct, and byproduct commodity prices are 
taken from this table at the specified evaluation date and used in the 
MINSIM4 program's financial evaluation. 

Maintenance of Permanent Data Files 

Four interactive update programs and one data base changes program are 
used to maintain the permanent data file. 



TABLE 1. - Example of typical deposi t information required for 
financial evaluation of a property 



Category description and units 



Exploration value , thousands . 

Land acquisition do. 

Mining preparation do. 

Mine plant do . 

Mine equipment do. 

Do do. 

Mine equipment reinvestment do. 

Do do. 

Do do. 

Do do . 

Do do. 

Do do. 

Mill plant and equipment do. 

Working capital do. 

Mine operating cost 

value per ton ore 1 . 

Mill operating cost do. 

Ore mined per year tons. 

Copper: 

Feed grade pet Cu. 

Mill recovery pet . 

Concentrate grade pet Cu. 

Smelter recovery pet . 

Smelter grade pet Cu. 

Refinery recovery pet . 

Smelter operating oost 

value per ton cone. 

Refinery operating cost 

value per ton blister. 

Transportation to smelter 

value per ton cone. 

Transportation to refinery 

value per ton blister. 
Molybdenum: 

Feed grade pet Mo. 

Mill recovery pet. 

Concentrate grade pet Mo. 

Price value per pound. 

Gold: 

Feed grade. ... troy ounces per ton. 

Mill recovery pet . 

Concentrate grade 

troy ounces per ton. 

Smelter recovery pet . 

Selling price 

value per troy ounce. 
Silver: 

Feed grade. ... troy ounces per ton. 

Mill recovery pet . 

Concentrate grade 

troy ounces per ton. 

Smelter recovery pet . 

Selling price 

value per troy ounce. 



Year of occurrence 



1978 
1980 
1979 
1979 
1979 
1980 
1984 
1985 
1986 
1987 
1990 
1991 
1979 
1981 

1981 
1981 
1981 

1981 
1981 
1981 
1981 
1981 
1981 

1981 

1981 

1981 

1981 

1981 
1981 
1981 
1981 

1981 
1981 

1981 
1981 

1981 

1981 
1981 

1981 
1981 

1981 



End 



1979 
1980 
1980 
1980 
1979 
1980 
1984 
1985 
1986 
1987 
1990 
1991 
1980 
1981 

1995 
1995 
1995 

1995 
1995 
1995 
1995 
1995 
1995 

1995 

1995 

1995 

19 95 

1995 
1995 
1995 
1995 

1995 
1995 

1995 
1995 

1995 

1995 
1995 

1995 
1995 

1995 



Annual 
category value 



$470 

$538 

$1,791 

$898 

$2,286 

$2,846 

$604 

$632 

$955 

$2,292 

$1,198 

$1,244 

$18,703 

$2,366 

$1,450 

$1,700 

4,520,000 

0.43 
93.00 
28.00 
98.00 
98.00 
99.90 

$93.00 

$192.00 

$6.90 

$9.90 

0.013 
63.00 
50.00 
$4.01 

0.003 
90.00 

0.20 
95.00 

$173.69 

0.06 
90.00 

3.53 
95.00 

$4.93 



'All tonnages are in metric tons. 

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12 



Maintenance of the Master Commodity Files 

Two programs are needed to maintain the master commodity files — the MAS 
data base changes program and the commodity file update program. The data 
base changes program accesses the MAS data base and an existing master 
commodity file. The program searches the data base for changes that have 
been made in the data base file for each of the properties being evaluated 
since the last time the check for changes was made. If changes have been 
made, the program prints a report of all data base items that may affect the 
data stored in the master commodity file. 

Required data changes to the master commodity file are made via the com- 
modity file update program, an interactive program run on a remote terminal. 
The user may enter data for new properties, or replace or delete existing 
data on the file. For special studies, existing files may be altered and 
saved under a different name without affecting the data on the original 
file. A formatted listing of the master commodity file can be printed upon 
request. 

Maintenance of the Tax Record File, Cost Index 
Tables File, and the Price Table File 

The tax record update, the cost index update and the price table update 
programs are interactive programs that may be accessed by remote terminal. 
Each file contains parameters which are used during the MINSIMA evaluation. 
Records for each of the -three files may be added, deleted, or replaced at 
any time. A formatted listing of each file can be printed upon request. 

The Request Processor Subsystem 

This subsystem consists of one interactive program in which the user 
requests supply data and three other programs that generate the requested 
data. Figure 4 is a schematic diagram of the request processor subsystem. 

The user's request includes the designation of the master commodity 
file to be used, the specified rate of return, and the date to which all 
dollar amounts (costs and prices) are to be inflated. The user may also 
select various options that control property selection, increase or decrease 
specified operating and/or capital costs, and/or adjust any of the tax para- 
meters in selected States or countries to determine what effect these factors 
may have on the supply data. 

The interactive request processor program starts the running of the 
following three programs: the cost adjuster program, the MINSIM4 financial 
analysis program, and the table/curve data generator program. Appendix C is 
a detailed example of the type of information a user of the system may alter 
to examine a commodity's supply availability under different situations. 



13 











FILE UPDATE 












SUBSYSTEM [ 




v 


REQUEST PROCESSOR SUBSYSTEM 




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commod- 
ity 
file 




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table 

file 




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index 
table 

file 




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table 

file 




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adjust- 
ments 




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( 






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! program 






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Annual recoverable 






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tonnages per 






deposit 




deposit 






Table/curve data 






generator 






proc 


)ram 






V 


f 






CURVE 






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! SUBSYSTEM 











FIGURE 4. - The request processor subsystem. 



14 



Cost Adjuster Program 

This program extracts selected data from a particular master commodity 
file and converts it to data required by the MINSIM4 program. Tax, price, 
and optional parameters are inserted appropriately. Production units are 
converted so that all the data on file are in consistent units. Inflation 
factors are applied to each data file so that all costs are quoted in the 
same constant dollars. Also, user-requested tax, byproduct price, and cost 
adjustments are applied. A report can be printed that defines all the basic 
data used in the SAM system run. 

MINSIM4 Financial Analysis Program 3 

Essentially, the SAM system- was built around the MINSIM4 financial 
analysis program. As mentioned previously, this program has multiple pro- 
ducts. It will calculate the DCFROR at a given commodity price or the re- 
quired selling price of the primary commodity to attain a specified DCFROR. 
The net present value (NPV) of the operation is also calculated. 

Other outputs from the program are annual cash flows for each deposit 
and a brief financial summary report (table 5). 

The strength of the MINSIM4 program is not only its outputs but its 
practically unlimited capacity for inputs. The program can handle most 
combinations of inputs that might exist in the operation of a mineral deposit. 
Appendix A lists the possible input parameters MINSIM4 can use at any one 
time per deposit and explains how the parameters may be handled. The MINSIM4 
program will pass price and production values to the table/curve data 
generator program. 

Table/Curve Data Generator Program 

This program assembles the annual, total, and cumulative production 
data for the prime commodity as well as all the byproducts and lists the 
production data according to the price of the prime commodity. Each by- 
product is converted to a standard production unit (short tons for copper, 
troy ounces for gold, etc). The unit for the price of the prime commodity 
is also converted to a standard unit (for example, copper in dollars per 
pound). Values of production are scaled for table and curve output. Curve 
data points are calculated and stored for use by the curve generator subsystem. 

The Curve Generator Subsystem 

This subsystem consists of an interactive program designed to construct 
supply curves on a Tektronix * graphic terminal. Figure 5 is a schematic 
diagram of the curve generator subsystem. In addition to its curve drawing 
function, the curve generator subsystem serves as a system status indicator. 

3 This program is also used as a separate entity from the SAM system. 
H Reference to brand names does not imply endorsement by the Bureau of Mines. 



TABLE 5. - E xample of MINSIM4 financial summary output 



Price Determination 

Last year additions to cash flow: 

Cumulative working capital 17892566 

Cumulative salvage value 

Other cumulative values: 

Revenues 2982814650 

Royalties 

Total depreciation 321402640 

Depletion used 308820788 

Sum tax loss carry 57193709 

Sum invest tax credit 32040264 

Property taxes 40085102 

Severance taxes 

State income taxes 53029330 

Federal income taxes 9213982 3 

Cash flow 482975097 

Final year's analysis figures: 

Continuous rate of return 15.000 

15.00 pet present value 0.0 

Commodity Summary Data 



Commodity 



Revenues 
(dollars) 



Units recovered 
(metric tons) 



Price/metric ton 
(dollars) 



Copper 1921772050 

Lead 117141700 

Zinc 743888796 

Silver 200012104 



1095480 

160986 

1106105 

1261 



1754.274 

727.650 

672.530 

158631.780 



Total Initial Investment Data 



Item 



Amount 
(dollars) 



Exploration 4097200 

Land acquisition 159400 

Development 30072208 

Mine plant and equipment 28964904 

Mill plant and equipment 292437726 

Working capital 7892566 

Misc. investment and operating costs.. 

Total units treated 30030000 



16 





Product of REQUEST 
PROCESSOR SUBSYSTEM 








v 






CURVE GENERATOR SUBSYSTEM 






Status indicator of 
SAM system run 


System failure 


^ 










S 


upply curves request 


ed 




Supply curves not reque 


sted 

i 




> 


> 








\ 




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per deposit 




Cash flows 
per deposit 




V 


t 




V 




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analysis 

summary per 

deposit 




Financial 

analysis 

summary per 

deposit 




\ 


/ 




v 




Options 
report 




Options 
report 




\ 


f 




> 


f 




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tables 




Supply 
tables 




> 


t 






















Supply 
curves 


N 


SAM system 
run completed 








Abort 


S 

















































FIGURE 5. - The curve generator subsystem. 



17 

At any time after requesting supply data through the request processor pro- 
gram, the curve generator program may be activated and will inform the user 
whether the job has been run. 

In addition to supply table and curve output, the SAM system will print 
a list of options selected by the user, full MINSIM4 financial analysis 
evaluations (cash flows) of each property selected, and an optional list of 
the basic data used in the MINSIM4 evaluations. 

When the curve data are available, the user may specify which supply 
curves are to be displayed on the screen. Figure B-l is an example of the 
type of curve that is drawn. 

GENERAL OUTPUT FROM THE SAM SYSTEM 

Each subsystem may yield printed output. Below is a list of each sub- 
system and its possible outputs. 

A. File Update Subsystem 

1. The Data Base Changes Report lists those items in 
the MAS data base that have changed and that may 
affect the MINSIM4 input data. 

2. Each time one of the permanent data files is up- 
dated, a Transaction Report providing the details 

of the update transactions will be printed. 

3. The user may request formatted listings of the 
four permanent data files in this subsystem (master 
commodity file, price file, taxes file, and the cost 
index table file). 

B. Request Processor Subsystem 

1. The Options Report lists all the various options 
selected by the user during the run of the request 
processor program. This report will precede all 
other printed output from this subsystem. Figure 6 
portrays a typical Options Report. 

2. The user may request a listing of the basic data 
used in any particular run of the SAM system. 

3. MINSIM4 output of financial evaluations for each 
property will always be printed. This output is 
inclusive of annual cash flows and brief financial 
summary statements. 

4. If supply tables are requested by the user, separate 
supply tables for the prime commodity and all coproduct 
and byproducts will be printed. (Information included 



18 



File name = TEST SITUATION 

Prime commodity = COPPER 

Rate of return = 15% Date of costs = Jan. 1978 Discount method = continuous 

Properties selected are domestic 

Coproduct and byproduct prices are in Jan. 1978 dollars 

Depletion allowances will be included 

Depletion allowances will be limited 

Factor of adjustment = 1.000 

Supply tables were requested 
Byproduct supply tables were requested 
Titles for supply tables are: 

COPPER SUPPLY AVAILABILITY 

BASED ON DOMESTIC RESERVE BASE 

PREPARED BY MAFO 

Supply curves were requested 
Titles for supply curves are: 

COPPER SUPPLY AVAILABILITY 

SHOWS PRICE-TONNAGE RELATIONSHIP 

BASED ON DOMESTIC RESERVE BASE 

Comments for supply tables and/or curves are: 

Date of test evaluation 
10 October 1979 

Unit of production for prime commodity is metric ton 

Data entering MINSIM4 program will be reported 



FIGURE 6. - Example of options report for SAM run No. XXXX. 



19 



in these supply tables will be property name, location, 
price, and annual cumulative and total cumulative ton- 
nages recovered at specified prices). Table 6 is an 
example of a supply table output. 

C. The Curve Generator Subsystem 

1. Supply curves (primary commodity as well as coproduct 
and byproduct curves) generated by price per unit versus 
annual recoverable tonnage. 

2. Supply curves generated by price per unit versus 
total recoverable tonnage. 

CONCLUSIONS 

The SAM system has been tested and used for approximately 6 months to 
develop and maintain supply analysis data and curves showing price-tonnage 
relationships. To date, the system has been used for copper, lead-zinc, and 
aluminum supply analyses. 

Separate segments of the system, with particular emphasis on the MINSIM4 
financial analysis program, have been used to perform other studies. These 
have included (1) sensitivity analyses on the production of certain com- 
modities using tax structures as the varying parameter and (2) analyses 
performed in conjunction with the U.S. Bureau of Indian Affairs (BIA) upon 
mineral lease agreements between particular Indian Reservations and the 
private sector. 

Numerous other financial analyses were performed using the mineral 
economic tools of the MAS. Case examples of the capabilities of the SAM 
system are given in appendixes B and C. 

Given the capabilities of the SAM system in coordination with the sizable 
quantity of data contained in the MAS data base, there are a significant 
variety of useful products potentially obtainable from this system. 

For example, consider that the SAM system can handle "n" commodities, 
"n" deposits per commodity, and five resource estimate levels per deposit. 
By varying one or numerous parameters at any time, the user could readily 
see the effect upon each commodity's supply availability. 

The interfacing of basic mineral deposit information and SAM's supply 
analysis capabilities with existing or new mineral demand models provides a 
valuable policy analysis, forecasting, and planning tool for government and 
industry. 



20 



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21 



BIBLIOGRAPHY 

1. Bennett, H. J., L. Moore, L. E. Welborn, and J. E. Toland. An Economic 
Appraisal of the Supply of Copper From Primary Domestic Sources. BuMines 
IC 8598, 1973, 156 pp. 

2. Bennett, H. J., J. G. Thompson, H. J. Quiring, and J. E. Toland. Financial 
Evaluation of Mineral Deposits Using Sensitivity and Probabilistic 
Analysis Methods. BuMines IC 8495, 1970, 82 pp. 

3. Kingston, G. Reserve Classification of Identified Nonfuel Mineral 
Resources by the Bureau of Mines Minerals Availability System. Preprint, 
Mathematical Geology, v. 9, No. 3, 197 7, 7 pp. 

4. Kingston, G. U.S. Bureau of Mines Minerals Availability Studies. Ch. in 
Mineral Materials Modeling, A State-of-the-Art Review, ed. by W. A. Vogely. 
Resources for the Future, Inc., Washington, D.C. , December 1975, pp. 
245-272. 

5. Rosenkranz, R. D. , R. L. Davidoff, and J. F. Lemons, Jr. An Economic 
Appraisal of the Supply of Copper From Domestic Deposits. BuMines IC 
8809, 1979, 31 pp. 

6. Steckley, R. C. , and J. F. Lemons. A Method for Updating Cost Estimates 
for the Minerals Availability System, Bureau of Mines, Minerals Avail- 
ability Field Office. May 1976, 40 pp.; available from U.S. Bureau of 
Mines, Minerals Availability Field Office, Denver, Colo. 

7. U.S. Bureau of Mines. The Bureau of Mines Minerals Availability System 
and Resource Classification Manual. BuMines IC 8654, 1974, 199 pp. 



22 APPENDIX A.— MINSIM4 INPUT PARAMETERS 

I. General information 

Number of preproduction years 

Number of production years (maximum =80) 

First production year 

Leach option (identify commodity) 

Discount method (continuous or discrete) 

Discount rate or target rate of return specified 

Option for whether depletion allowance should be used 

or ignored 
Option on whether the analysis is a price determination or a DCFROR 

analysis 

II. Investment parameter records and options 

Exploration capital 
Years of occurrence 

Capital may be expensed or capitalized 
Acquisition capital 

Years of occurrence 
Mine preparation and development capital 
Years of occurrence 
Capital may be expensed or deferred 
Mine and processing plant and equipment investments 
Years of occurrence 
Depreciation method options 
Straight line 
Double declining balance 
Double declining balance with switchover 
Sum-of-the-years digits 
Investment depreciation period 
Year in which depreciation begins 
Investment salvage value 

III. Loan parameter records and options 

Years of occurrence 

Loan payback method options 

Amortized payments 

Fixed interest payments with ballon payment at end of term 

Read in payments 
Loan term 
Loan interest rate 

IV. Operating Cost Parameter Records 

Working capital 
Mine operating costs 
Mill operating costs 
Smelter operating costs 
Refinery operating costs 
Leach operating costs 



23 



Transportation costs 
Mine to mill 
Mill to smelter 
Smelter to refinery 
Refinery to market 

V. Operating commodity parameter records (up to 5 commodities + leach) 

Ore feed grade 

Mill recovery 

Mill concentrate grade 

Smelter recovery 

Smelter concentrate grade 

Refinery recovery 

VI. Commodity parameter records 

Name of commodity 

Severance tax option, multiple options 

Severance tax rate 

Depletion allowance rate 

VII. Royalty parameter records 

Years of occurrence 

Choice of one or all commodities 

Method of royalty calculation, multiple options 

Factor or value per unit rate 

VIII. Tax parameter records 

Federal tax parameters 

Use minimum federal tax (yes or no) 

Years of occurrence 

Tax loss carry option (yes or no) 

Investment tax credit (yes or no) 

Investment tax credit rate 

Federal tax options, multiple options 

Federal tax rate 
State tax parameters 

Years of occurrence 

State tax option, multiple options 

State tax rate 
Property tax parameters (based on revenues) 

Year of occurrence 

Property tax option, multiple options 

Mill levy rate 

Assessment rate 

Hoskold rates 

Fixed property tax (for example, dollars per acre) 
Property tax parameters (based on investment values) 



24 

Years of occurrence 
Property tax rate 
Assessment value rate 

Property value being assessed, multiple options 
Sliding scale tax parameters (Federal, State, property, severance, 
royalty) 

Years of occurrence 
Calculation options 
Rates 
Ranges 
Type of tax option, multiple options 

IX. Depletion option records 
Years of occurrence 
Calculation of depletion basis, multiple options 



25 

APPENDIX B.— CASE EXAMPLE 

Proble m 

Figure B-l is a graph of the total amount of domestic copper recoverable 
at various prices. The evaluation was performed in constant January 1978 
dollars assuming a 15-percent DCFROR. Using the information in figure B-l 
as a base, the SAM system was used to determine what impact a variance in 
the associated byproducts and coproduct credits would have upon the domestic 
availability of copper. 1 Evaluations were performed at the following two 
levels : 

1 All associated byproduct and coproduct credits were increased 
by 50 percent. 

2 All associated byproduct and coproduct credits were decreased 
by 50 percent. 

Procedure and Final Results 

The SAM system requires certain information from the user to perform 
supply availability studies. This particular information is prompted by 
an interactive, question-and-response mode using a computer terminal. By 
properly responding to each question, the user is able to adjust or assign the 
desired values to those parameters specific to any problem being addressed. 

For this particular problem, the parameters to be adjusted are byproduct 
and coproduct credits associated with the primary commodity, copper. The 
SAM system must be run twice to note the effect of these adjustments - once 
for increasing the credits and once for decreasing the credits. 

The results of these analyses are illustrated by supply curves, showing 
price-tonnage relationships. Figure B-l, the base case, may be compared with 
the resultant curves from the analyses. 

Other informative data the user may receive from the SAM system for 
comparison purposes are supply tables. Refer to table 6 as an example of 
this type of information. 

The following dialogue is representative of the type of query and 
response used between the SAM system and the USER necessary to assign and/or 
adjust the pertinent paramaters involved in this supply availability example. 
Figure B-2 is a simplified flow diagram of where parameters are to be 
included in the SAM system. To aid the reader in the flow of this system, 
reference will be made to this figure when pertinent. 

byproduct and coproduct credits are those revenues generated from all the 
other commodities besides the primary commodity copper. Some of these 
byproducts and coproducts associated with the primary commodity copper are 
molybdenum, gold, silver, lead, zinc, tungsten, selenium, and platinum. 



26 



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.60 

.40 

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T 



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Costs include 15% rate of return on invested capital 



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5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 55,000 60,000 65,000 70P00 75,000 

TOTAL RECOVERABLE COPPER, thousand metric tons 
FIGURE B-l. - Example of SAM system supply curve. 



PART A. Associated byproduct and coproduct credits increased by 50 percent, 

USER: RUN-SAM 

(Necessary beginning statement.) 

SAM: HELLO, YOU HAVE ACTIVATED THE SAM REQUEST PROCESSOR PROGRAM 
ENTER DATA FILE NAME 
(This is the Master Commodity File, section A of figure B-2. ) 

USER: FILE -ABC 

(At this point, the user has instructed SAM that the analysis to be 
performed will be upon the data stored in FILE-ABC.) 

SAM: FILE -ABC IS CURRENT AS OF 01/01/79 

(SAM has acknowledged the existance of the FILE-ABC and has also 
informed the USER of the last date FILE-ABC was compared to the MAS 
data base to check for any significant changes in the data.) 

SAM: DO YOU (the USER) WANT TO ACCEPT ALL PROPERTIES? 

(This query is to determine if the USER desires all properties in 
the data file or only a portion of the properties. The case example 
used only the domestic deposits from the file.) 



27 






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28 

USER: NO 

SAM: SELECT TYPE TO BE INCLUDED (ENTER 1, 2, or 3) 
1. ALL 2. DOMESTIC ONLY 3. FOREIGN ONLY 

USER: 2 

SAM: SELECT TYPE TO BE INCLUDED (ENTER 1, 2, or 3) 

1. ONLY PRODUCERS 2. ONLY NONPRODUCERS 3. BOTH PRODUCERS AND 
NONPRODUCERS 

USER: 3 

SAM: SELECT DATA TO BE INCLUDED (ENTER 1, 2, or 3) 

1. ALL SELECTED THUS FAR 

2. ALL EXCEPT ENVIRONMENTALLY PROHIBITIVE 

3. ONLY ENVIRONMENTALLY PROHIBITIVE 

USER: 1 

(The case example used all domestic properties, regardless of 
environmental status.) 

SAM: DO YOU WANT TO ADJUST ALL BYPRODUCT AND COPRODUCT PRICES BY A COMMON 
FACTOR? 

(If the answer to this query were NO, SAM would come back and ask the 
USER if he/she wishes to adjust any byproduct and coproduct prices 
individually. Section B2 of figure B-2. ) 

USER: YES 

SAM: ENTER FACTOR OF ADJUSTMENT FOR ALL BYPRODUCT AND COPRODUCT PRICES. 
(All adjustments are accomplished by using multiplicative factors; 
for example, 1.5 equals an increase of 50 percent.) 

USER: 1.5 

SAM: SHALL DEPLETION ALLOWANCES BE INCLUDED? 

USER: YES 

SAM: SHALL DEPLETION ALLOWANCES BE LIMITED? 

USER: YES 

SAM: DO YOU WANT TO ADJUST THE DEPLETION LIMIT RATE BY A COMMON FACTOR? 

USER: NO 

(A NO response causes SAM to automatically default to a depletion 
limit of 50 percent of before-tax income as defined in the United 
States. ) 



29 



SAM: ENTER SPECIFIED RATE OF RETURN FOR ANALYSIS (AS A DECIMAL) 
(section D of figure B-2) 

USER: 0.15 

SAM: ENTER FOUR DIGIT YEAR OF COSTS 

(All evaluations are performed in constant dollars. This step 
involves the proper handling of already spent inv«sta«iit, 
inflation factors, and remaining production life. Section Ij^ of 
figure B-2.) 

USER: 1978 

SAM: ENTER MONTH OF COSTS 

(Section Bj^ of figure B-2) 

USER: JANUARY 

SAM: SELECT DISCOUNTING METHOD FOR RATE OF RETURN AND NET PRESENT VALUE 
CALCULATION (ENTER or 1) 
0. CONTINUOUS 1. DISCRETE 
(Section D of figure B-2,) 

USER: 

SAM: DO YOU WANT TO ADJUST ANY COST CATEGORIES BY A COMMON FACTO*? 

(SAM enables the USER to adjust each cost category individually 
or all at once. Section B of figure B-2.) 

USER: NO 

SAM: DO YOU WANT TO ADJUST ANY COMMODITY PARAMETERS? 

SAM allows the user to adjust these parameters individually or in 
groups, (feed grades, recovery factors, etc. Section B of figure 
B-2.) 

USER: NO 

SAM: DO YOU WANT TO ADJUST ANY TAXES BY A COMMON FACTOR? 

(Federal, State, property, severance, etc. Section B3 of figure 
B-2.) 

USER: NO 

SAM: DO YOU WANT SUPPLY TABLE OUTPUT FOR THE ASSOCIATED 1YPRODUCTS AND 
COPRODUCTS? 

USER: YES 

SAM: DO YOU WANT SUPPLY CURVES? 
(Section F of figure B-2.) 



30 

USER: YES 

SAM: SELECT UNIT OF PRODUCTION FOR PRIME COMMODITY 

1. GRAM 2. KILOGRAM 3. METRIC TON 

4. TROY OUNCE 5. POUND 6. SHORT TON 

7. LONG TON 8 FLASK 9. LONG TON UNIT 

(SAM automatically calculates the units of production to whatever 

the USER specifies. Section B of figure B-2. ) 

USER: 3 

SAM: ENTER LINE 1 OF 3 FOR SUPPLY TABLES TITLE 

USER: COPPER SUPPLY AVAILABILITY 

SAM: ENTER LINE 2 OF 3 FOR SUPPLY TABLES TITLE 

USER: BASED ON DOMESTIC RESERVE BASE 

SAM: ENTER LINE 3 OF 3 FOR SUPPLY TABLES TITLE 

USER: BYPRODUCT AND COPRODUCT CREDITS INCREASED BY 50% 

SAM: THE FOLLOWING LINES CONSTITUTE THE SUPPLY TABLES TITLE 

COPPER SUPPLY AVAILABILITY 
BASED ON DOMESTIC RESERVE BASE 
BYPRODUCT AND COPRODUCT CREDITS INCREASED BY 50% 

ARE THEY SATISFACTORY? 

USER: YES 

SAM: DO YOU WANT TO USE THE SAME TITLES FOR THE SUPPLY CURVES? 

USER: YES 

SAM: DO YOU DESIRE SPECIFIC COMMENTS ON YOUR SUPPLY CURVES? 

USER: YES 

SAM: ENTER LINE 1 OF 3 COMMENTS (depress "RETURN" key on terminal for 
no additional comments.) 

USER: EXAMPLE - 10/10/79 

SAM: ENTER LINE 2 OF 3 COMMENTS 

USER: JANUARY 1978 DOLLARS 

SAM: ENTER LINE 3 OF 3 COMMENTS 

USER: (DEPRESS "RETURN" KEY) 



31 
SAM: THE FOLLOWING LINES CONSTITUTE COMMENTS FOR THE SUPPLY CURVES 
(Specified rate of return is an automatic comment.) 

EXAMPLE - 10/10/79 
JANUARY 1978 DOLLARS 

ARE THEY SATISFACTORY? 

USER: YES 

SAM: THIS JOB HAS BEEN STARTED 
YOUR RUN NUMBER IS 1234 
BYE 

The run number assigned to the USER at the end of this portion of the 
program is essential to obtain the desired supply table and supply curve 
output . 

Now that all the parameters have been selected and placed appropriately, 
the next portion of SAM's work is performed in batch process mode. In other 
words, the computer run is made overnight. 

Once the batch process has been successfully completed, the USER may 
address the final stage of the SAM system (the curve generator program) to 
obtain the desired supply curves on the CRT terminal. For the final output 
stage, the following dialogue would occur between the USER and SAM. 

USER: RUN SAM/SUPPLYCURVE 

SAM: HELLO, YOU ARE RUNNING THE SAM SYSTEM CURVE GENERATOR PR0GRAM-F0R 
WHICH RUN NUMBER DO YOU WISH TO SEE SUPPLY CURVES? (Enter all 4 
digits.) 

USER: 1234 

SAM: DO YOU WISH TO SEE A LIST OF OPTIONS FOR THIS RUN? 

USER: YES 

SAM: OPTIONS REPORT FOR SAM RUN NUMBER 1234 

DATA FILE NAME = FILE -ABC 

PRIME COMMODITY = COPPER 

RATE OF RETURN = 15% DATE OF COSTS = JAN, 1978 DISCOUNT METHOD = CONTINUOUS 

PROPERTIES SELECTED ARE 

DOMESTIC ONLY 

BYPRODUCT PRICES ARE IN JAN, 1978 DOLLARS 

DEPLETION ALLOWANCES WILL BE INCLUDED 



32 



DEPLETION ALLOWANCES WILL BE LIMITED 
FACTOR OF ADJUSTMENT - 1.000 

SUPPLY TABLES WERE REQUESTED 
BYPRODUCT AND COPRODUCT SUPPLY TABLES WERE REQUESTED 
TITLES FOR SUPPLY TABLES ARE: 



COPPER SUPPLY AVAILABILITY 

•ASED OM DOMISTIC RESERVE BASE 

BYPRODUCT AUD COPRODUCT CREDITS INCREASED BY 50% 

SUPPLY CURVES WERE REQUESTED 
TITLES FOR SUPPLY CURVES ARE: 

COPPER SUPPLY AVAILABILITY 

BASED ON DOMESTIC RESERVE BASE 

BYPRODUCT AUD COPRODUCT CREDITS INCREASED BY 50% 

COW«NTS FOR SUPPLY TABLES AND/OR CURVES ARE: 

EXAMPLE -10/10/7 9 
JANUARY 1978 DOLLARS 

UNIT Of PRODUCTION FOR PRIME COMMODITY IS METRIC TON 

DATA. ENTERING MINSIN4 PROGRAM WILL BE REPORTED 

^OPTIONS REPORT FINISHED. 

THE PRIMARY COMMODITY FOR THIS RUN IS COPPER 

SAM: DO YOU WIBH TO SEE A LIST OF THE CURRENT BYPRODUCTS AND COPRODUCTS? 

USER: YES 

SAM: THE FOLLOWING ARE ASSOCIATED BYPRODUCTS AND COPRODUCTS FOR THIS RUN: 

COBALT 
00 LB 

IRON 

LEAD 

MOLYBDENUM 

NICKEL 

PLATINUM 

SELENIUM 

SILVER 

SULFUR 

TUNGSTEN 

ZINC 

SAM: DO YOU WANT TO SEE ANY SUPPLY CURVES ON THE TEKTRONIX? 



33 



USER: YES 

SAM: AFTER YOU ARE DONE LOOKING AT A PARTICULAR CURVE, DEPRESS THE "RETURN" 
KEY. FOR WHICH COMMODITY DO YOU WISH TO SEE A SUPPLY CURVE? 

USER: COPPER 



SAM: 



WHICH CURVE (S) DO YOU WANT? 



USER: 



1. ANNUAL PRODUCTION 

2. TOTAL PRODUCTION 

3. BOTH 

PLEASE ENTER THE NUMBER. 



At this point, the curve generator program produces the resultant 
supply curve (fig. B-3). 



2.20 




5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 55,000 60,000 65,000 70,000 75,000 

TOTAL RECOVERABLE COPPER, thousand metric tons 



FIGURE B-3. - Total recoverable copper with 50-percent 

increase in associated byproduct 
and coproduct credits. 



34 
SAM: 



DO YOU WANT TO SEE ANY ADDITIONAL SUPPLY CURVES? 



USER: 



NO 



SAM: 



DO YOU WISH TO RETAIN THE DATA FOR THIS RUN OF THE SAM SYSTEM? 



USER: YES 

SAM: DATA FOR RUN NUMBER 1234 WILL BE RETAINED 

THIS IS THE CURVE GENERATOR PROGRAM SIGNING OFF 
BYE 

PART B. Associated byproduct and coproduct credits decreased by 50 percent. 

Again, as in Part A, the key parameters to be modified are "byproduct 
and coproduct credits." Computer-user dialogue would be the same in all 
respects to Part A. Figure B-4 is the supply curve for domestic total re- 
coverable copper with byproduct and coproduct credits reduced 50 percent from 
their January 1978 values. 



</5 



6.50 
6.00 



— 5.50 
O 

CO 500 

CD 

— 4.50 
C 

O 
~3 '4.00 

Q~ 

^ 3.50 

O 

0- 3.00 

a: 

£ 2.50 



y 2.00 

or 



0_ 

rr 



1.50 



g- 1.00 

o 

O .50 



Costs include 15% rate of return on invested capital 
Example 10/10/79 
January 1978 dollars 



5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 55,000 60,000 65,000 70,000 75,000 

TOTAL RECOVERABLE COPPER, thousand metric tons 



FIGURE B-4. - Total recoverable copper with 50-percent 
decrease in associated byproduct 
and coproduct credits. 



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